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Who's ahead in France
First round on 18 April 2027. If nobody wins a majority, the top two meet on 2 May. Every poll so far says that runoff will include Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen leads in both scenarios tested. Mélenchon is second with 18–18.5%. Philippe gets 17% when he is the centrist candidate; Attal gets 11% in his place.
First round: polling average
Average of the latest poll from 6 pollsters, as of 21 Sep 2026. Each poll counts as the mean across its tested candidate lineups, which pulls down candidates who only appear in some lineups (Philippe, Attal). Update after the Socialist primary pending.
Head-to-head runoffs
The line marks 50%. Runoff polling is thinner and older than first-round polling; treat these as a direction, not a forecast.
How this tracker works
We only use published polls from established pollsters, with the pollster, dates, and sample size on record. We don't run our own polls.
Polls taken this far from an election are snapshots of current mood. In past cycles, the second-place race changed a lot in the final months.
Who's winning the midterms
Every House seat and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot. Republicans hold the Senate 53–47. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take it, because the vice president breaks 50–50 ties.
Generic ballot
"If the election were held today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican for Congress?" The best single read on the House.
Senate battleground
| State | Democrat | Republican | Latest poll | Margin |
|---|
Margins under 3 points are marked Close: that's inside the typical margin of error. "Flip" means the poll leader is from the party that doesn't hold the seat now.
If today's leaders all won
How this tracker works
The generic ballot and approval numbers come from the Silver Bulletin polling averages. Senate rows show the most recent public poll in each race, not an average, so a single poll can move a row.
Polls in midterms have missed by several points in both directions. Treat any race inside 3 points as a coin flip.
Coming soon
This tracker is being built. Subscribe to the weekly briefing to hear when it goes live.
Reporting and analysis
Elections, current events, and the history that explains them.